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Fundamento

Senior housing — the strongest demographic theme

The 80+ population grows 4%+ annually through 2035. Supply is structurally capped at 1–2% by construction economics. Occupancy reached 88.7% in Q3 2025 (highest since 2019). Accessible to individuals through REITs — Welltower, Ventas, Healthcare Realty.

This is the strongest single demographic thesis in US real estate. Demand grows mechanically with the aging Baby Boomers; supply growth is constrained by labor (40%+ of revenue is staff), capital cost, and regulatory approval.

Operating margins crossed 25% in mid-2025 (highest since 2018). Transaction volume reached $21.8 billion on a rolling four-quarter basis in Q3 2025 — up more than 40% YoY. Independent living occupancy crossed 90% for the first time since 2019.

Major public REITs: Welltower (WELL), Ventas (VTR), Healthpeak (DOC), Healthcare Realty (HR). Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) is the largest operator. For direct exposure as an LP, RIDEA partnerships with Welltower and Ventas allow institutional capital to participate in operating margin upside.

#senior housing#demographics#Welltower

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Property types worth knowing

Single-family rentals (SFR)

The most common form of direct real estate for individuals. Demand is durable (people always need housing), financing is available, properties are easy to understand. Target 6–10% cap rate, 5–12% cash-on-cash, in markets with reasonable price-to-rent ratios.

 Property types worth knowing

Short-term rentals (Airbnb) — the regulatory wildcard

Vacation rentals can generate 1.5–3× the gross of long-term rentals — but operating costs are higher, vacancy is higher (50–70% occupancy is normal), management runs 20–35% of gross, and regulatory risk is the biggest single threat to the entire investment thesis.

 Property types worth knowing

Small multifamily (2–4 units)

Duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes are an attractive step after single-family. They qualify for owner-occupied financing if you live in one unit. They diversify single-tenant risk. They're the building block for the "house hack" strategy.

 Property types worth knowing

Small commercial property

Strip retail, small office, small industrial/flex. Higher sophistication than residential — tenant credit matters more, leases are 5–10 years (vs. 1), vacancy can last much longer, tenant improvements at lease execution can be substantial.