Buy now, or wait?

Waiting feels safe — but if rates drop and prices rise, waiting can cost more than buying at the wrong time. Plug in your guess (or worst case) for next year, and see what happens.

Today vs. 12 months from now

Buy today

$2,737 / mo P&I

Price: $500,000
Down payment: $100,000
Loan: $400,000 at 7.28%
Interest paid by year 7: $196,045
Principal paid down by year 7: $33,851

Wait 12 months

$2,404 / mo P&I

Price then: $515,000 (+3%)
Down payment: $103,000
Loan: $412,000 at 5.75%
Rent paid while waiting: $28,800
Interest paid by year 7: $136,231
Principal paid down by year 7: $36,880

Δ monthly P&I -$333 cheaper if you wait

Δ down payment $3,000 more down if you wait

Rent burned $28,800 over 12 months

Break-even rate 6.40% future rate needed to tie

Verdict: Waiting 12 months would save you about $16,014 over a 7-year hold, counting the equity you keep — the rate drop more than offsets the rent paid and any price change. But that requires the rate prediction to actually come true.

Counted: rent while waiting, the purchase-price difference, and mortgage interest over the same 7-year window — down payment and principal are equity you keep, not costs. Not counted: property tax, insurance, and maintenance (the buy-today path carries them for all 84 months, the waiting path only for the months after it buys), transaction costs, and what your down payment could earn while you wait.

The honest caveat

The two biggest variables here — what the rate is in 12 months and what the price is — are unknowable. The point of this calculator isn't to predict; it's to show you how big the move would have to be. If the rate has to drop to 6.40% in 12 months for waiting to pay off, that's the bar your forecast has to clear.

How the math works (plain English)

Two things can change while you wait: price and rate. A higher price means more down payment and a bigger loan. A lower rate means a smaller monthly payment for the same loan. They push in opposite directions, and which one wins depends on the size of the moves.

We build both paths over the same 7-year window and compare what each one actually costs you: rent paid while waiting, the purchase-price difference, and the mortgage interest (P&I only) each path racks up. Your down payment and the principal you pay off are equity you keep, not money spent — counting them as costs is the classic mistake in buy-vs-wait math. The rent while waiting is the part most "wait for rates to drop" advice ignores — and it's often the biggest single cost of waiting.

Important honesty: nobody can forecast rates. The point of this tool isn't to predict — it's to show you how big the move has to be for waiting to actually pay off.

Our read — Q3 2026

Every tool on this site runs on the same working assumption: the most recent 30-year fixed rate we have pulled, shown with the date it was observed on the rates page; the affordability tool stress-tests at 7.5%, and each calculator names its own sensitivity convention where it appears. We don't forecast rates, and we distrust anyone who does. Our read is a rule, not a prediction: buy when the stress-rate payment is comfortable and your hold is five years or longer. Wait only when the break-even rate this tool computes is one you would genuinely bet your housing on — remembering that every month of waiting has a rent cost the calculator counts against you, and that a lower rate later is a refinance opportunity for the buyer who acted, not just a reward for the one who waited.

Our read is reviewed quarterly (next: October 2026). The 30-year rate comes from Freddie Mac’s survey, which publishes weekly; our copy of it refreshes when the pull runs, and that has not always been every week. The date beside the figure on the rates page is the one to trust — if it looks old, it is.

Nuestra lectura — T3 2026

Todas las herramientas de este sitio corren sobre el mismo supuesto de trabajo: la tasa fija a 30 años más reciente que hayamos tomado, que la página de tasas muestra junto con la fecha en que se observó; la herramienta de capacidad de compra aplica la prueba de estrés a 7.5%, y cada calculadora nombra su propia convención de sensibilidad donde aparece. No pronosticamos tasas, y desconfiamos de quien lo haga. Nuestra lectura es una regla, no una predicción: compra cuando el pago a la tasa de estrés sea cómodo y tu horizonte sea de cinco años o más. Espera solo cuando la tasa de equilibrio que calcula esta herramienta sea una a la que de verdad apostarías tu vivienda — recordando que cada mes de espera tiene un costo de renta que la calculadora te cuenta en contra, y que una tasa más baja después es una oportunidad de refinanciamiento para quien compró, no solo un premio para quien esperó.

Nuestra lectura se revisa cada trimestre (próxima: octubre 2026). La tasa a 30 años proviene de la encuesta de Freddie Mac, que se publica cada semana; nuestra copia se actualiza cuando la toma se ejecuta, y eso no siempre ha ocurrido cada semana. La fecha que acompaña a la cifra en la página de tasas es la que vale — si parece vieja, lo es.