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Asset Class Scorecard, 2025–2035

Real estate is no longer a single asset class — it's thirteen distinct economic exposures. The cross-sectional dispersion of returns within real estate now regularly exceeds the dispersion across geographies. What you own matters more than where or when.

Each class is scored from –5 to +5 across twelve disruption vectors (AI demand, demographics, supply, climate/insurance, regulation, and eight others). The composite below is the weighted average.

# Asset class 2025–2035 outlook Conviction Key drivers
1 Data Centers
+1.9
high AI demand, power constraint as moat
2 Manufactured Housing & Land
+1.7
high Affordability surge, zoning protection, agency financing
3 Senior Housing
+1.7
high 80+ population +4%/yr, supply structurally capped
4 Industrial / Logistics
+1.6
high Small-bay infill outperforms; supply normalizing
5 Multifamily
+1.2
medium Geographic divergence; NE/Midwest > Sun Belt
6 Self-Storage
+1.1
medium Mature; AI-enabled operating margin upside
7 Healthcare / MOB / Life Sci
+1.0
medium Outpatient shift, demographic compound
8 SFR / Build-to-Rent
+1.0
medium Affordability-driven rental demand; long institutionalization runway
9 Student Housing
+1.0
medium Tier-1 universities strong; sub-flagship at demographic-cliff risk
10 Office — Trophy / A+
+0.8
medium Top 9% achieving record rents; permanent split from commodity
11 Hospitality / Branded Residential
+0.5
medium Luxury & branded residential outperform; full-service urban lags
12 Retail (consolidated)
+0.4
medium Grocery-anchored & daily-needs resilient; mall & pharmacy pressured
13 Office — Commodity
-1.5
high 90% of vacancy in bottom 30% of buildings; conversion or demolition

Scale: −5 (strongly negative) to +5 (strongly positive); bars show range −2 to +2 for legibility. Composite weights the 12 disruption vectors: AI demand (12%), demographics (12%), supply pipeline (12%), climate/insurance (10%), AI workflow (8%), power/grid (8%), capital markets (8%), regulation (8%), humanoid construction (6%), humanoid operations (6%), operator platform (6%), cross-border capital (4%).

Three takeaways

  1. Overweight power-constrained scarcity and demographic structural shorts. Data centers, manufactured housing, senior housing, industrial outdoor storage, grocery-anchored retail, and trophy office in supply-constrained submarkets share the highest composite scores. The common thread: structural undersupply that capital cannot quickly relieve.
  2. Underweight or avoid the obsolescing middle. Commodity office, oversupplied 2021–2023 Sun Belt multifamily vintages, older Class B/C lab space, and pre-2010 retail strip without strong daily-needs tenancy face permanent capital impairment — not cyclical drawdown.
  3. Build or rent the operating platform; don't allocate purely as capital. The decade's economic surplus accrues disproportionately to vertically integrated operators with proprietary data, AI-native workflows, and brand equity. Pure capital allocators without operating edge face fee compression of 30–50% over the next ten years.