Climate & insurance — the fastest-growing question
Per a January 2026 survey of 1,000 U.S. homeowners (Kin/Pollfish): 93% are concerned about climate-related damage in the next 2–3 years. 49% say they may move because of climate risk. 31% are not confident they'll maintain adequate insurance through 2026. Premiums rose 8.5% in 2025 on top of 18% in 2024.
A 5-question checklist before you buy, sell, or stay
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Is the property insurable today — and will it be in 10 years?
Get a quote from at least three carriers, not just one. If only the state insurer of last resort (Florida Citizens, California FAIR Plan) will write it, you have an insurability problem, not a coverage problem. Ask your current carrier whether they're still writing new policies in this ZIP.
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Where is the trajectory on premiums going?
National average new-policy premiums rose 8.5% in 2025 after 18% in 2024 (Matic 2026 Predictions). In Florida the average is now ~4× the national average. Model the next decade at +6–10%/yr in higher-risk markets — that's the difference between cash flow and negative carry on a rental.
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What's the actual physical exposure?
Flood (FEMA flood maps + ClimateCheck), wildfire (Verisk wildfire score; Wood Mackenzie), hurricane (NOAA storm-surge maps), wind, hail, severe convective storm. Don't trust a single source — they disagree at the property level.
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How will climate affect resale in 8–10 years?
Buyers in 2034 will price insurance into offers more than today's buyers do. Properties in tightening markets sell at a widening discount. Coastal Florida, parts of California wildfire zones, hurricane-vulnerable Gulf Coast — all already showing this.
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Retrofit, relocate, or accept?
Hurricane shutters, impact windows, roof-tie-downs, defensible space (wildfire), foundation elevation, backup power — these can lower premiums 5–25% and protect resale. If retrofit cost exceeds 10–15% of value with marginal premium benefit, that's a relocate signal.
Red flags that should make you walk away
- Only the state insurer of last resort will write it. Florida Citizens, CA FAIR Plan, NC Beach Plan — these are the carrier of last resort, not a long-term solution.
- Premium has doubled in 3 years. Extrapolate: where will it be in 10?
- Recent named-storm or wildfire claim history on the property. Pulls future quotes; sometimes makes the property uninsurable.
- HOA reserves below 30% of recommended. Common in Florida condos. The next assessment is coming.
- "Climate haven" hype without verification. Some "haven" markets have their own risks (Great Lakes flooding, derecho/tornado exposure in the Midwest).
Free tools worth using before you sign
- FEMA Flood Map Service Center — official flood zone designation. Required for federal-backed mortgages in zones A and V.
- ClimateCheck.com — property-level multi-peril climate risk (heat, wildfire, drought, storm, flood) over 30 years.
- First Street Foundation (Risk Factor) — also integrated into Realtor.com listings.
- NOAA Sea Level Rise viewer — for coastal property.
- Verisk / Wood Mackenzie wildfire scores — usually surfaced by your insurance agent on request.