Tokenization — signal vs. noise
Despite McKinsey's $4T bull-case for 2030, real estate tokenization through 2025 remained dominated by retail platforms (RealT) and institutional pilots. Where tokenization will win by 2030: fund administration, secondaries trading, cross-border distribution. Where it won't: direct single-asset equity at institutional scale.
The GENIUS Act (July 2025) provided a US federal framework for payment stablecoins. The dominant institutional use case by 2025 was tokenized treasuries (BlackRock's BUIDL crossed $500M within months of its 2024 launch), not direct real estate. Global RWA AUM approached $30B in 2025 per Chainalysis.
Where tokenization will create real value by 2030: (1) fund administration — capital calls, distributions, K-1 issuance, LP record-keeping (cost reduction of 30–50% achievable); (2) secondaries trading — programmable transfer-restriction logic dramatically reduces friction; (3) cross-border distribution — KYC/AML on-chain and stablecoin rails materially lower the cost of admitting non-US investors.
Where it will not: direct tokenization of single-asset equity at institutional scale. The friction isn't the rails — it's the underwriting, disclosure, and market-making depth that retail tokens can't replicate.