Mexico industrial — nearshoring durability
Mexico's industrial inventory reached 109 million m² by Q3 2025 (5% YoY growth) with vacancy rising to 4.8 million m² as the 2022–2023 speculative boom digested. Border markets (Tijuana, Reynosa) saw negative net absorption. Monterrey and Mexico City remain demand engines with rents up ~50% over five years.
The structural tailwind — global supply-chain reorientation away from China — survives multiple administration changes in both Washington and Mexico City. USMCA renegotiation in 2026 is a known unknown that could materially affect the near-term capex pipeline.
For family-office capital, the differentiating call is to maintain exposure in Monterrey/Mexico City Class A industrial and to avoid the border boom-bust submarkets where speculative inventory will continue to digest through 2027. Vacancy at primary Class A in Monterrey and Mexico City remained under 4% even as border markets corrected.
For individual investors: direct Mexican industrial purchase is mostly inaccessible (large minimum tickets, governance complexity). FIBRAs — Mexican REITs — provide listed exposure. FIBRA Prologis (FIBRAPL14) is the largest industrial-focused; FIBRA Macquarie is broader.