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Fundamento

The diagnostic-first principle

Universal crisis advice is wrong as often as it's right. The right action depends on YOUR specific position — capital structure, liquidity runway, asset-class and geographic mix — not on the market's. Diagnose before you prescribe.

Dimension 1 — Capital structure: what is your leverage, what are your covenants, when does debt mature, is there recourse? An owner with 40% LTV non-recourse 7-year fixed-rate debt operates in a completely different reality from an owner with 75% LTV floating-rate debt maturing in 18 months with springing recourse.

Dimension 2 — Liquidity runway: if rents drop 30%, vacancy rises 10 percentage points, and OpEx rises 5%, how many months can you cover debt service from existing reserves and committed lines? More than 18: be patient and opportunistic. 6–18: defensive but not patient. Less than 6: triage.

Dimension 3 — Asset class and geographic mix: are you in classes that recover fast (industrial, multifamily) or where the crisis is the secular headwind made worse (commodity office, second-tier retail)? Are you in markets driven by engines that survive (healthcare, government, tech) or that don't (oil in an energy crash, tourism in a pandemic)?

#diagnostic#triage#crisis

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