Demographics — who will live where, and rent or buy?
Two demographic facts dominate real estate: (1) the 80+ population grows 4%+ annually through 2035 — strongest case for senior housing; (2) only 28% of young adults are in financially independent households (vs. 45% in 1975) — bullish for SFR/BTR rentals, bearish for new-home absorption.
The senior wave is mechanical and predictable. Baby Boomers turning 80 starting 2026; the cohort grows 4%+/year for at least the next decade. New supply growth is capped at 1–2% by labor cost (40%+ of revenue), capital cost, and regulatory approval. Result: senior housing occupancy has improved for 17 consecutive quarters (NIC MAP) and crossed 88.7% in Q3 2025.
Young adult household formation is depressed. Per the Census Bureau (2025), only 28% of young adults are in financially independent households versus 45% in 1975. The driver is housing affordability. Implication: SFR and BTR have a structural demand floor that doesn't exist in homeownership. Build-to-rent has become the dominant new-supply channel for institutional SFR.
International migration: 2.3 million net additions to US population in 2023. 2024–2026 administration immigration policies are slowing this materially, creating a near-term demand headwind in the markets that absorbed the most migrants — Houston, Dallas, Miami, Atlanta, Phoenix.