AI demand impact — biggest single force in real estate
AI is the largest single force reshaping real estate. Massive demand creation for data centers (electricity from data centers grew 17% in 2025 alone, set to double by 2030). Demand destruction for commodity office (space-per-employee declining 1–2% per year). Industrial benefits via supply-chain reshoring.
Per the International Energy Agency 2025: data center electricity demand grew 17% in 2025 against global electricity demand growth of 3%; consumption is set to double by 2030. US data center capacity: ~30 GW in 2025, projected 90+ GW by 2030. Bloom Energy's Jan 2026 Data Center Power Report projects total US demand nearly doubling from 80 GW (2025) to 150 GW (2028).
On the destruction side: commodity office faces 1–2% annual demand decline as space-per-employee continues falling. Many large employers already operate with 20–30% less office space than pre-pandemic. The bottom 30% of office buildings hold 90% of vacancies (the trophy/commodity split is permanent, not cyclical).
Retail is a mixed picture: e-commerce penetration adds another 300–500 bps over the decade, but grocery-anchored, daily-needs, and experiential retail remain AI-resistant. The losers are legacy enclosed mall and second-tier strip without daily-needs tenancy.